Our guidance is informed by modelling that identifies the optimal investment needed to meet peak demand and other policy requirements, while minimising capital expenditure and operational costs.
Using the virtual world for real-world impact.
Models allow us to distil complex systems into their principal components, empowering us to test and investigate a system – without affecting it. Each simulation serves as a test-bed for evaluating our intuition, expanding our understanding, and exploring a system’s limits. In the virtual world of a model, we can build a highway, shut down a power station, and even merge two rival firms.
We specialise in advising on long-term generation and transmission expansion and retirement decisions.
We are experts in providing advice to inform commercial operational decisions at both a system-wide and portfolio scale. We achieve this through modelling that determines optimal generation volumes required to meet demand, while considering detailed technical and economic characteristics of the system.
A key aspect of economic dispatch modelling is projecting future wholesale prices, which provides insights around profit and cost forecasts.
We provide advice to support strategic and investment decision-making for network service providers by considering problems such as the emergence of new technologies and non-network solutions.
We are often approached by clients who are interested in solving unique or novel problems that are best addressed through the development of tailored, project-specific models. These might include:
- Modelling failure rate probabilities to assess the reliability of plants
- Stochastic optimisation modelling to determine system costs under different demand forecasts
- Load forecasting based on spatial demographic factors
- Neural network system demand forecasting
Endgame’s operations research capability is focused on applying optimisation and machine learning to solve logistical problems outside of the energy sector, including production planning, inventory planning, scheduling, and procurement.
Our optimisation solution adds significant value to clients as it is less time-consuming and resource intensive, as well as easier to implement than the manual approach.
The Endgame approach to modelling.
From bespoke Python + Gurobi optimisation models, to more general energy market modelling using PLEXOS, our team excels at conducting various forms of modelling.
The process typically starts with a client consultation around inputs and assumptions, which is then followed by long term capacity expansion modelling which forecasts the long-term optimal capacity mix as the system evolves.
This forecast generation capacity mix will then be used as an input into short-term dispatch modelling, which conducts a detailed simulation of market dispatch outcomes and produces half-hourly forecasts of pool prices and plant output.